The 2nd Term Dilemma 1916-2000
Delivered at MVHS March 30, 2004
Woodrow Wilson vs. Charles E. Hughes 277 49.4%- 254 46.2 %
Election of 1916
Issues: “He kept us out of War”
Reform government
8 hour day for RR workers, avoiding costly national strike
TR supports European intervention, presses Hughes
Hughes rock solid Conservative
2nd Term: 1918 GOP wins control of Congress
1919 Strikes, Red-Scare, Volstead Act, rejection of the League and Treaty
1920 Palmer raids, Deportations, Wilson’s sickness
Congress: D R D R
Wilson’s Election
1912 51-44-1 290-127-18
1914 56-39-1 231-193-8
Wilson’s 2nd Term
1916 53-42 210-216-6
1918 47-48-1 191-237-7 (Mid-Term –lost 19 seats House –6 Senate)
(Lost 99 house seats since 1912 and 9 Senate
Harding’s Election seats since 1914)
1920 37-59 131-303-1
1922 43-51-2 207-225-3
Coolidge’s Election
1924 40-54-1 183-247-5
1926 47-48-1 195-237-3
Hoover’s Election
1928 39-56-1 163-267-14
1930 47-48-1 216-218-1
FDR’s Election
1932 59-36-1 313-117-5
1934 69-25-2 322-103-10
Franklin D. Roosevelt- vs.- Alfred M. Landon 523 60.8%- 8 36.5%
Election of 1936
Issues: Recovery and its success
Attacked Hoover and the right wing
Shifted black voters
Assailed Wall Street & GOP as economic royalists
Appealed to pocketbook
Personality & charm
2nd Term: 1937 Court packing debacle, quarantine speech, Panay incident
Slowed recovery
1938 purge of conservative Democrats in primaries backfires, military buildup
Starts, HUAC investigations, GOP makes gains in Congress
1939 Congress passes 4th Neutrality Act
Congress: D R D R
1936 76-16-4 331-89-13
1938 69-23-4 261-164-4 (lost 70 seats in the house 7 in the Senate)
FDR’s 3rd Term
1940 66-28-2 268-162-5
1942 57-38-1 222-209-4
FDR’s 4th term
1944 57-38-1 243-190-2
Harry S Truman vs. Thomas E. Dewey 303 49.5 % 186 45% 39 others 4.5%
Election of 1948
Issues: Party of the People vs. the rich, Wall Street Reactionaries
linked GOP to fascism
attacked do-nothing Congress, Taft-Hartley
pro-labor
Dewey ran laid back over confidant campaign
Dewey ignored current issues, only spoke of plans for new administration
2nd Term: 1949 Steel strikes labor unrest
1950 McCarthyism. Korean War, firing of General MacArthur
1951 inflation, wage & price controls
1952 Truman seizes steel mills, GOP wins control of both Houses, ist
time since 1928, HST accused of being soft on Communism!
Congress: D R D R
1946 45-51 188-246-1
Truman wins 2nd Term
1948 54-42 263-164
1950 49-47 234-199 (Mid-Term lost 29 house seats and 5 Senate seats)
Eisenhower Election
1952 46-48-2 211-221-1
1954 48-47-1 232-203
Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Adlai E. Stevenson 457 57.6 % 73 42.1%
Election 0f 1956
Issues: Man vs. Party (Democrats)
Stevenson- end draft, stop nuclear testing, GOP graft & corruption
Nixon’s dishonesty, Sherman Adams resignation
Ike’s health, 1955 recession
Ike’s perceived leadership with worldwide tension-Hungary, Suez
2nd Term: 1957 Little Rock and Civil Rights protests, recession
1958 Sputnik, US space disasters, Lebanon intervention
1959 Castro takes Cuba
1960 U2 Collapse of Summit, recession
Eisenhower promises smaller government, but expands Social Security
Public works, highways, creates HEW
Ill health plagues 2nd term
Eisenhower 2nd Term
Congress: D R D R
1956 49-47 233-220
1958 64-34 283-153 (Mid Term loses 50 House seats 15 Senate Seats)
Kennedy Election
1960 64-36 262-175
1962 67-33 258-176-1
Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Barry M. Goldwater 486 61.1% 52 38.5%
Election of 1964
Issues: Prosperity, JFK legacy
Civil Rights
Goldwater- credibility home and abroad
Preserved Social security from GOP attacks
2nd Term: 1965 Santo Domingo, rioting Watts, US escalation in Viet Nam
1966 Democrats gain seats in Congress/black power/ B-52 raids
1967 Great Society stalled riots in Detroit and Newark
1968 Pueblo incident, withdrawal from 1968 election
Social discontent with draft, war, protests, and Cultural Revolution
Johnson Election
Congress: D R D R
1964 68-32 295-140
1966 64-36 248-187 (Mid-Term lost 47 House Seats and 4 Senate Seats)
Nixon Election
1968 58-42 243-192
1970 54-44-2 255-180
Richard M. Nixon vs. George McGovern 520 60.6% 17 37.5%
Election of 1972
Issues: McGovernite- radical chic image
Split in Democratic ranks over primary between HHH and McGovern
Issues: Loss of labor to GOP
Convention disaster in Chicago, dumping of Eagleton
Creeps use of surrogate, Rose Garden Campaign of Nixon
Meetings in China and Russia
Viet Nam continuance
Water gate break-in
2nd Term: 1973 Watergate scandal breaks open
Saturday night massacre
Agnew resigns
Yom Kippur war, oil embargo, prices leap
Impeachment hearings, tapes, 18 minute gap
Resignation
Nixon’s 2nd term
Congress: D R D R
1972 56-42-2 242-192-1
1974 61-37-2 291-144 (Mid Term lost 58 House seats 5 Senate seats)
Carter’s Election
1976 61-38-1 292-143
1978 58-41-1 277-158
Reagan Election
1980 46-53-1 242-192
1982 46-54 269-166
Ronald W. Reagan vs. Walter F. Mondale 525 59% 13 41%
Election of 1984
Issues: Reagan’s use of the media
Control of the media
Image of a strong America
Defense build-up, foreign policy action-: Libya, Iran
Rising deficits,
Pride in America vs. liberal weakness and disarmament
2nd Term: 1985 burgeoning deficit: Gramm-Rudman
1986 Pollard guilty of spying for Israel, Iran-Contra scandal
1987 deficit surges, White House staff resignations, stock market crash
1988 Pentagon procurement scandal, aging and attention issue with
Reagan
1990 Reagan post script- while testifying about Iran-Contra, he
Responds on videotape 130 times, “I don’t remember” or “ I don’t
Recall”
Congress: D R D R
1984 47-53 253-182
1986 55-45 258-177 (Lost 5 House Seats and 8 Senate seats)
Bush Election
1988 55-45 260-175
1990 56-44 267-167
Clinton Election
1992 57-43 258-176
1994 48-52 204-230-1
Clinton 2nd Term
1996 45-55 207-226-2
1998 45-55 211-223-1 (Won 4 House seats – no Senate change)
(Lost 47 House seats from 1992 and 12 Senate seats)
Problems of the second term – Sex scandals, Impeachment Crisis, Rising interest rates, end of the tech boom and economic slow-down
Bush II Election
2000 50-49-1 212-221-2
2002 48-51-1
1996: Benefited from free-ride during primaries
Built large war chess. Dole wore out in primaries, spent all his funds
Clinton shifted the debate and captured the center
Dole moved right in the primaries and attempted to shift to the center at
The convention. Clinton won the debates: answering questions, praising Dole,
Keeping the political high road, Clinton’s ads attacked GOP, linking Dole with
Gingrich, holding seniors and women
Clinton focused on “bread and butter” issues: Medicare, education, and environment
Balancing the budget, job creation
Dole focused on 15% tax cut, without showing where it could be justified and
On the character issue-. Dole lost credibility with the public on trust!